Economic Voting in Portuguese Municipal Elections

This paper analyses the impact of economic conditions on Portuguese local electoral outcomes. We use two extensive datasets to estimate an economic voting model which accounts for the possibility that different levels of government have different levels of responsibility for economic outcomes and for clarity of government responsibility. Empirical results indicate that the performance of the national economy is important especially if local governments are of the same party as the central government. The municipal situation is also relevant particularly in scenarios of higher clarity of government responsibilityLocal governments, Elections, Portugal, Voting, Economic conditions

Economic Voting in Portuguese Municipal Elections

This paper analyses the impact of economic conditions on Portuguese local electoral outcomes. We use two extensive datasets to estimate an economic voting model which accounts for the possibility that different levels of government have different levels of responsibility for economic outcomes and for clarity of government responsibility. Empirical results indicate that the performance of the national economy is important especially if local governments are of the same party as the central government. The municipal situation is also relevant particularly in scenarios of higher clarity of government responsibility.Local governments, Elections, Portugal, Voting, Economic conditions

Turnout and the modeling of economic conditions: Evidence from Portuguese elections

This paper analyzes the impact of economic conditions on voter turnout at Portuguese legislative and municipal elections. We use four extensive datasets to estimate an economic turnout model in which local economic variables are included in quadratic form, so that non-linear effects can be taken into account. The first two datasets cover all mainland municipalities (currently 278), from 1979 to 2005. The other two are cross-sections of all 4037 mainland freguesias, used to analyze the determinants of turnout at the 2001 municipal elections and at the 2002 legislative elections. Empirical results indicate that the performance of the national economy is important only in legislative elections and that, in accordance with our expectations, the regional and local unemployment rates tend to have a non-linear relationship with turnout.Turnout, Local governments, Elections, Portugal, Economic conditions

Characterizing and attributing the warming trend in sea and land surface temperatures

Because of low-frequency internal variability, the observed and underlying warming trends in temperature series can be markedly different. Important differences in the observed nonlinear trends in hemispheric temperature series suggest that the northern and southern hemispheres have responded differently to the changes in the radiative forcing. Using recent econometric techniques, we can reconcile such differences and show that all sea and land temperatures share similar time series properties and a common underlying warming trend having a dominant anthropogenic origin. We also investigate the interhemispheric temperature asymmetry (ITA) and show that the differences in warming between hemispheres are in part driven by anthropogenic forcing but that most of the observed rapid changes is likely due to natural variability. The attribution of changes in ITA is relevant since increases in the temperature contrast between hemispheres could potentially produce a shift in the Intertropical Convergence Zone and alter rainfall patterns. The existence of a current slowdown in the warming and its causes are also investigated. The results suggest that the slowdown is a common feature in global and hemispheric sea and land temperatures that can, at least partly, be attributed to changes in anthropogenic forcing.Debido a la variabilidad interna de baja frecuencia, las tendencias del calentamiento observadas y subyacentes en series de temperatura pueden ser marcadamente diferentes. Las temperaturas hemisféricas están caracterizadas por importantes discrepancias en las tendencias no lineales observadas, sugiriendo que los hemisferios norte y sur han respondido de manera diferente a los cambios en el forzamiento radiativo. Mediante la utilización de técnicas econométricas recientes es posible reconciliar estas diferencias y mostrar que todas las temperaturas terrestres y oceánicas comparten propiedades de series de tiempo similares, así como una tendencia subyacente común de origen antrópico. También se investiga la asimetría inter-hemisférica de temperatura (ITA, por sus siglas en inglés) y se muestra que la diferencia en el calentamiento entre hemisferios se debe en parte al forzamiento antrópico, pero que la mayoría de los cambios rápidos observados son probablemente producto de la variabilidad natural. La atribución de cambios en la ITA es importante porque los aumentos en el contraste de temperaturas entre hemisferios podrían ocasionar un desplazamiento de la zona intertropical de convergencia y alterar los patrones de precipitación. También se investigan la existencia y causas de una reciente ralentización en el calentamiento. Los resultados sugieren que dicha lentificación es una característica común de las temperaturas hemisféricas globales tanto en tierra como en el océano, y que puede atribuirse al menos parcialmente a cambios en el forzamiento antrópico

Types for X10 Clocks

X10 is a modern language built from the ground up to handle future parallel systems, from multicore machines to cluster configurations. We take a closer look at a pair of synchronisation mechanisms: finish and clocks. The former waits for the termination of parallel computations, the latter allow multiple concurrent activities to wait for each other at certain points in time. In order to better understand these concepts we study a type system for a stripped down version of X10. The main result assures that well typed programs do not run into the errors identified in the X10 language reference, namely the ClockUseException. The study will open, we hope, doors to a more flexible utilisation of clocks in the X10 language.Comment: In Proceedings PLACES 2010, arXiv:1110.385

Deductive Verification of Parallel Programs Using Why3

The Message Passing Interface specification (MPI) defines a portable message-passing API used to program parallel computers. MPI programs manifest a number of challenges on what concerns correctness: sent and expected values in communications may not match, resulting in incorrect computations possibly leading to crashes; and programs may deadlock resulting in wasted resources. Existing tools are not completely satisfactory: model-checking does not scale with the number of processes; testing techniques wastes resources and are highly dependent on the quality of the test set. As an alternative, we present a prototype for a type-based approach to programming and verifying MPI like programs against protocols. Protocols are written in a dependent type language designed so as to capture the most common primitives in MPI, incorporating, in addition, a form of primitive recursion and collective choice. Protocols are then translated into Why3, a deductive software verification tool. Source code, in turn, is written in WhyML, the language of the Why3 platform, and checked against the protocol. Programs that pass verification are guaranteed to be communication safe and free from deadlocks. We verified several parallel programs from textbooks using our approach, and report on the outcome.Comment: In Proceedings ICE 2015, arXiv:1508.0459

Assessing the Number of Components in Mixture Models: a Review.

Despite the widespread application of finite mixture models, the decision of how many classes are required to adequately represent the data is, according to many authors, an important, but unsolved issue. This work aims to review, describe and organize the available approaches designed to help the selection of the adequate number of mixture components (including Monte Carlo test procedures, information criteria and classification-based criteria); we also provide some published simulation results about their relative performance, with the purpose of identifying the scenarios where each criterion is more effective (adequate).Finite mixture; number of mixture components; information criteria; simulation studies.

Using Generic Summarization to Improve Music Information Retrieval Tasks

In order to satisfy processing time constraints, many MIR tasks process only a segment of the whole music signal. This practice may lead to decreasing performance, since the most important information for the tasks may not be in those processed segments. In this paper, we leverage generic summarization algorithms, previously applied to text and speech summarization, to summarize items in music datasets. These algorithms build summaries, that are both concise and diverse, by selecting appropriate segments from the input signal which makes them good candidates to summarize music as well. We evaluate the summarization process on binary and multiclass music genre classification tasks, by comparing the performance obtained using summarized datasets against the performances obtained using continuous segments (which is the traditional method used for addressing the previously mentioned time constraints) and full songs of the same original dataset. We show that GRASSHOPPER, LexRank, LSA, MMR, and a Support Sets-based Centrality model improve classification performance when compared to selected 30-second baselines. We also show that summarized datasets lead to a classification performance whose difference is not statistically significant from using full songs. Furthermore, we make an argument stating the advantages of sharing summarized datasets for future MIR research.Comment: 24 pages, 10 tables; Submitted to IEEE/ACM Transactions on Audio, Speech and Language Processin

On the Application of Generic Summarization Algorithms to Music

Several generic summarization algorithms were developed in the past and successfully applied in fields such as text and speech summarization. In this paper, we review and apply these algorithms to music. To evaluate this summarization's performance, we adopt an extrinsic approach: we compare a Fado Genre Classifier's performance using truncated contiguous clips against the summaries extracted with those algorithms on 2 different datasets. We show that Maximal Marginal Relevance (MMR), LexRank and Latent Semantic Analysis (LSA) all improve classification performance in both datasets used for testing.Comment: 12 pages, 1 table; Submitted to IEEE Signal Processing Letter

Azores tourism product perceptions : the Influence of the country of origin

This study focused on the Autonomous Region of the Azores (ARA), which has some features that are considered favorable to the development of tourism and to the interest in the tourism product. However, the region’s geographical dispersion, its high dependence on transportation and the seasonality of the industry constrain its development. The present research aimed to assess tourists’ perception of certain costs (living, accommodation, plane ticket, and transportation to/from the airport), and whether these differ between tourists of different nationalities. The findings show that tourists, both residents and non-residents, have the perception that the cost of living and of the plane ticket are high, while the cost of accommodation and of transportation to the airport is considered normal by most respondents. We concluded that the models differ when applied to residents and non-residents. For non-residents, living in certain countries induces them to express differences in the perception of the costs studied, when compared to individuals that live in other countries.N/